Parker's Picks.
One week at a time.

PHI: no matching issue in parsed report | JAX: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

PHI: Jalen Hurts: 114 tracked attempts, CPOE -2.68, throw time 3.21s | JAX: Trevor Lawrence: 104 tracked attempts, CPOE 6.81, throw time 2.74s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

PHI: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Drew Kendall (Did Not Participate In Practice) | JAX: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

PHI: QB-hit rate allowed 15.3%; opponent hit rate generated 16.5%; Andy Dalton charted pressure 0.0%; Jalen Hurts charted pressure 24.1% | JAX: QB-hit rate allowed 19.1%; opponent hit rate generated 8.9%; Trevor Lawrence charted pressure 22.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

PHI: DeVonta Smith: 27 tracked targets, separation 2.72yd, YAC above expected 0.16yd; Dontayvion Wicks: 16 tracked targets, separation 2.96yd, YAC above expected 0.51yd | JAX: Parker Washington: 23 tracked targets, separation 2.22yd, YAC above expected -1.58yd; Brenton Strange: 13 tracked targets, separation 4.06yd, YAC above expected 1.43yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

PHI: Marcus Epps (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jonathan Greenard (Did Not Participate In Practice); A.J. Epenesa (Limited Participation in Practice) | JAX: Jarrian Jones (Limited Participation in Practice); Eric Murray (Limited Participation in Practice); Josh Hines-Allen (Limited Participation in Practice); Montaric Brown (Limited Participation in Practice); Jourdan Lewis (Limited Participation in Practice); DaVon Hamilton (Limited Participation in Practice); Caleb Ransaw (Injured Reserve)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

PHI: Makai Lemon target share 8.9% early to 20.0% in last two weeks; Dontayvion Wicks target share 17.9% early to 20.0% in last two weeks | JAX: Brenton Strange target share 10.2% early to 26.0% in last two weeks; Jakobi Meyers target share 6.1% early to 24.0% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

PHI: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.05; all-play EPA -0.12; 150/228 competitive plays | JAX: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.18; all-play EPA 0.18; 123/220 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: PHI 1547, JAX 1573. PHI: offensive success 38.8%; opposing defense allows 39.0% | JAX: offensive success 52.7%; opposing defense allows 38.1%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

PHI: 1/3 offensive fumbles lost; 4 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 3.9% | JAX: 0/2 offensive fumbles lost; 2 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.7%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

PHI: rush success 37.0%, stopped at/behind line 21.8%; opposing defense rush success allowed 33.8% | JAX: rush success 46.8%, stopped at/behind line 15.2%; opposing defense rush success allowed 46.3%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

PHI: FTN motion 53.9%, play action/dropback 18.8%, RPO 7.9%; charted 228 plays | JAX: FTN motion 60.9%, play action/dropback 26.3%, RPO 0.9%; charted 220 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

PHI: fourth-down go rate 9.2%, 21 sampled opportunities | JAX: fourth-down go rate 8.8%, 9 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

PHI: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.61s/play; 10.50 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -3.90 percentage points | JAX: neutral within-drive elapsed time 27.43s/play; 9.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 0.04 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 59 to 60 F; wind up to 6.5 mph, gusts 14.1 mph; precipitation probability up to 0%. Roof: open-air field.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

PHI: kickoff at 9:30 AM on home-city clock | JAX: kickoff at 9:30 AM on home-city clock Both teams play at the listed neutral venue.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

PHI: 7 days rest, 58 offensive plays in last game. JAX: 7 days rest, 53 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

PHI: special-teams EPA/play 0.21; mean possession start 50.81 yards from opponent goal line | JAX: special-teams EPA/play 0.12; mean possession start 54.95 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium; surface recorded as synthetic NFL surface, official Tottenham venue source; neutral site. Roof: open-air field.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

Liam Coen wants more opportunities for Bhayshul Tuten to establish a rhythm, but the report provides no guaranteed touch count. Jacksonville's early results also include a plus-six turnover differential and substantial scoring off takeaways. Those outcomes should not become an additional sustainable-performance or motivation bonus.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

CHI: Caleb Williams (Limited Participation in Practice) | GB: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

CHI: Tyson Bagent: 34 tracked attempts, CPOE 9.13, throw time 2.84s; Case Keenum: 34 tracked attempts, CPOE 1.07, throw time 2.41s; Caleb Williams: 55 tracked attempts, CPOE 3.30, throw time 3.42s | GB: Jordan Love: 154 tracked attempts, CPOE -6.91, throw time 2.48s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

CHI: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Braxton Jones (Injured Reserve) | GB: 3/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Jacob Monk (Limited Participation in Practice); Anthony Belton (Limited Participation in Practice); Jager Burton (Limited Participation in Practice); Aaron Banks (Limited Participation in Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

CHI: QB-hit rate allowed 11.6%; opponent hit rate generated 14.0%; Caleb Williams charted pressure 34.4%; Case Keenum charted pressure 8.6% | GB: QB-hit rate allowed 17.7%; opponent hit rate generated 20.0%; Jordan Love charted pressure 22.1%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

CHI: Luther Burden III: 29 tracked targets, separation 2.48yd, YAC above expected 0.66yd; Kalif Raymond: 21 tracked targets, separation 4.20yd, YAC above expected 0.47yd | GB: Matthew Golden: 37 tracked targets, separation 2.57yd, YAC above expected 1.31yd; Christian Watson: 29 tracked targets, separation 2.26yd, YAC above expected 3.51yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

CHI: Keyshaun Elliott (Did Not Participate In Practice); Kyler Gordon (Full Participation in Practice); Noah Sewell (Full Participation in Practice); Shemar Turner (Full Participation in Practice); Anthony Johnson Jr. (Out) | GB: Edgerrin Cooper (Injured Reserve); Lukas Van Ness (Limited Participation in Practice); Devonte Wyatt (Limited Participation in Practice); Javon Hargrave (Limited Participation in Practice); Anthony Campbell (Limited Participation in Practice); Micah Parsons (Out)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

CHI: Luther Burden III target share 21.4% early to 26.2% in last two weeks; Colston Loveland target share 8.9% early to 20.0% in last two weeks | GB: Matthew Golden target share 26.1% early to 23.5% in last two weeks; Tucker Kraft target share 13.0% early to 18.5% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

CHI: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.09; all-play EPA 0.11; 207/292 competitive plays | GB: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.10; all-play EPA -0.09; 113/232 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: CHI 1547, GB 1507. CHI: offensive success 49.2%; opposing defense allows 40.7% | GB: offensive success 41.1%; opposing defense allows 38.3%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

CHI: 3/5 offensive fumbles lost; 2 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.2% | GB: 3/9 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 3.7%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

CHI: rush success 43.2%, stopped at/behind line 15.4%; opposing defense rush success allowed 40.5% | GB: rush success 35.2%, stopped at/behind line 22.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 47.6%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

CHI: FTN motion 46.6%, play action/dropback 32.7%, RPO 5.1%; charted 292 plays | GB: FTN motion 58.2%, play action/dropback 16.0%, RPO 4.3%; charted 232 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

CHI: fourth-down go rate 45.8%, 12 sampled opportunities | GB: fourth-down go rate 8.3%, 15 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

CHI: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.28s/play; 10.50 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -2.90 percentage points | GB: neutral within-drive elapsed time 22.38s/play; 11.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -0.47 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 74 to 79 F; wind up to 14.1 mph, gusts 26.2 mph; precipitation probability up to 0%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

CHI: kickoff at 12:00 PM on home-city clock | GB: kickoff at 12:00 PM on home-city clock CHI travels to Lambeau Field.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

CHI: 7 days rest, 86 offensive plays in last game. GB: 7 days rest, 52 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

CHI: special-teams EPA/play 0.12; mean possession start 55.89 yards from opponent goal line | GB: special-teams EPA/play 0.15; mean possession start 51.41 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Lambeau Field; surface recorded as grass; GB designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

The Friday report reiterates Ben Johnson's announcement that Tyson Bagent will start. Caleb Williams returned to limited practice with his hamstring injury and is questionable, which does not overturn that playing plan. Kyle Monangai is out; D'Andre Swift practiced fully without a designation, with Roschon Johnson moving into the second running-back role.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

CIN: no matching issue in parsed report | MIA: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

CIN: Joe Burrow: 157 tracked attempts, CPOE 4.45, throw time 2.57s | MIA: Malik Willis: 103 tracked attempts, CPOE -4.25, throw time 3.02s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

CIN: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report | MIA: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

CIN: QB-hit rate allowed 18.8%; opponent hit rate generated 13.3%; Joe Burrow charted pressure 24.1% | MIA: QB-hit rate allowed 14.0%; opponent hit rate generated 18.8%; Malik Willis charted pressure 28.9%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

CIN: Tee Higgins: 39 tracked targets, separation 2.55yd, YAC above expected 1.00yd; Ja'Marr Chase: 21 tracked targets, separation 2.83yd, YAC above expected 0.83yd | MIA: Malik Washington: 28 tracked targets, separation 3.46yd, YAC above expected 1.15yd; Chris Bell: 8 tracked targets, separation 2.13yd, YAC above expected 4.53yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

CIN: Bryan Cook (Full Participation in Practice); Dexter Lawrence (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jonathan Allen (Limited Participation in Practice); Jalen Davis (Injured Reserve); B.J. Hill (Did Not Participate In Practice); Kyle Dugger (Did Not Participate In Practice); Swayze Bozeman (Full Participation in Practice) | MIA: Robert Beal Jr. (Out); Jackson Woodard (Limited Participation in Practice); Rob Beal Jr. (Did Not Participate In Practice); Storm Duck (Full Participation in Practice); Kenneth Grant (Full Participation in Practice); Reese Taylor (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

CIN: Tee Higgins target share 24.6% early to 25.6% in last two weeks; Ja'Marr Chase target share 20.0% early to 16.7% in last two weeks | MIA: Malik Washington target share 26.0% early to 28.8% in last two weeks; Chris Bell target share 6.0% early to 19.2% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

CIN: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.01; all-play EPA 0.06; 131/247 competitive plays | MIA: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.24; all-play EPA -0.15; 107/210 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: CIN 1495, MIA 1415. CIN: offensive success 44.6%; opposing defense allows 54.3% | MIA: offensive success 37.3%; opposing defense allows 40.3%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

CIN: 1/2 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 1.8% | MIA: 3/6 offensive fumbles lost; 2 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.6%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

CIN: rush success 37.4%, stopped at/behind line 17.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 39.6% | MIA: rush success 30.2%, stopped at/behind line 20.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 31.9%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

CIN: FTN motion 52.2%, play action/dropback 17.0%, RPO 8.1%; charted 247 plays | MIA: FTN motion 80.5%, play action/dropback 26.0%, RPO 4.3%; charted 210 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

CIN: fourth-down go rate 6.2%, 14 sampled opportunities | MIA: fourth-down go rate 17.5%, 13 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

CIN: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.77s/play; 10.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 4.97 percentage points | MIA: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.93s/play; 9.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -5.39 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 90 to 90 F; wind up to 9.8 mph, gusts 12.8 mph; precipitation probability up to 7%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

CIN: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock | MIA: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock CIN travels to Hard Rock Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

CIN: 7 days rest, 71 offensive plays in last game. MIA: 7 days rest, 37 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

CIN: special-teams EPA/play 0.05; mean possession start 45.70 yards from opponent goal line | MIA: special-teams EPA/play 0.02; mean possession start 50.06 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Hard Rock Stadium; surface recorded as grass; MIA designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

Jeff Hafley discussed distributing carries without De'Von Achane, allowing productive backs to continue within drives while substituting for fatigue. That supports a flexible committee rather than a fixed workload promise. Malik Willis remains the quarterback assumption. The transcript was published Friday but labels the underlying availability as Thursday.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

CLE: Dillon Gabriel (Full Participation in Practice) | NYJ: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

CLE: Deshaun Watson: 115 tracked attempts, CPOE -2.55, throw time 2.79s | NYJ: Geno Smith: 117 tracked attempts, CPOE 10.30, throw time 2.94s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

CLE: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Teven Jenkins (Did Not Participate In Practice) | NYJ: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Dylan Parham (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

CLE: QB-hit rate allowed 16.7%; opponent hit rate generated 10.4%; Deshaun Watson charted pressure 21.6%; Shedeur Sanders charted pressure 0.0% | NYJ: QB-hit rate allowed 18.1%; opponent hit rate generated 15.7%; Geno Smith charted pressure 23.7%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

CLE: KC Concepcion: 28 tracked targets, separation 3.37yd, YAC above expected -0.26yd; Harold Fannin Jr.: 20 tracked targets, separation 5.98yd, YAC above expected 0.94yd | NYJ: Garrett Wilson: 27 tracked targets, separation 2.34yd, YAC above expected -0.73yd; Adonai Mitchell: 12 tracked targets, separation 2.70yd, YAC above expected -0.09yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

CLE: Mason Graham (Did Not Participate In Practice); Derek Barnett (Limited Participation in Practice); Kalia Davis (Did Not Participate In Practice); Mike Hall Jr. (Did Not Participate In Practice) | NYJ: Kingsley Enagbare (Full Participation in Practice); Will McDonald IV (Limited Participation in Practice); Braiden McGregor (Injured Reserve); Francisco Mauigoa (Did Not Participate In Practice); Kiko Mauigoa (Out)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

CLE: KC Concepcion target share 21.2% early to 27.0% in last two weeks; Harold Fannin Jr. target share 17.3% early to 22.2% in last two weeks | NYJ: Garrett Wilson target share 23.7% early to 33.3% in last two weeks; Kenyon Sadiq target share 10.2% early to 23.5% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

CLE: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.10; all-play EPA -0.02; 104/224 competitive plays | NYJ: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.02; all-play EPA 0.01; 140/226 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: CLE 1454, NYJ 1379. CLE: offensive success 38.7%; opposing defense allows 48.0% | NYJ: offensive success 43.2%; opposing defense allows 46.1%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

CLE: 2/4 offensive fumbles lost; 2 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 3.1% | NYJ: 1/3 offensive fumbles lost; 0 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 1.5%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

CLE: rush success 32.4%, stopped at/behind line 17.4%; opposing defense rush success allowed 45.3% | NYJ: rush success 38.1%, stopped at/behind line 21.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 45.3%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

CLE: FTN motion 51.8%, play action/dropback 20.6%, RPO 7.6%; charted 224 plays | NYJ: FTN motion 47.3%, play action/dropback 21.7%, RPO 2.2%; charted 226 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

CLE: fourth-down go rate 8.3%, 15 sampled opportunities | NYJ: fourth-down go rate 16.7%, 9 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

CLE: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.04s/play; 12.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 0.48 percentage points | NYJ: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.13s/play; 10.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 1.28 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 63 to 66 F; wind up to 10.9 mph, gusts 24.4 mph; precipitation probability up to 81%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

CLE: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock | NYJ: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock CLE travels to MetLife Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

CLE: 10 days rest, 60 offensive plays in last game. NYJ: 7 days rest, 32 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

CLE: special-teams EPA/play 0.18; mean possession start 52.12 yards from opponent goal line | NYJ: special-teams EPA/play 0.08; mean possession start 51.71 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

MetLife Stadium; surface recorded as fieldturf; NYJ designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

HOU: no matching issue in parsed report | TEN: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

HOU: C.J. Stroud: 151 tracked attempts, CPOE 5.29, throw time 3.01s | TEN: Cam Ward: 119 tracked attempts, CPOE -1.94, throw time 2.94s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

HOU: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Trent Brown (Did Not Participate In Practice); Aireontae Ersery (Did Not Participate In Practice); Ed Ingram (Limited Participation in Practice); Blake Fisher (Limited Participation in Practice); Braden Smith (Full Participation in Practice) | TEN: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

HOU: QB-hit rate allowed 16.9%; opponent hit rate generated 12.4%; C.J. Stroud charted pressure 23.8%; Kai Kroeger charted pressure 0.0% | TEN: QB-hit rate allowed 11.8%; opponent hit rate generated 17.2%; Cam Ward charted pressure 21.1%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

HOU: Xavier Hutchinson: 26 tracked targets, separation 2.40yd, YAC above expected 0.15yd; Dalton Schultz: 22 tracked targets, separation 4.10yd, YAC above expected -0.24yd | TEN: Carnell Tate: 32 tracked targets, separation 3.14yd, YAC above expected -0.43yd; Wan'Dale Robinson: 22 tracked targets, separation 2.68yd, YAC above expected 0.74yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

HOU: Jadeveon Clowney (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jaylin Smith (Injured Reserve); Kayden McDonald (Full Participation in Practice); M.J. Stewart (Full Participation in Practice) | TEN: Kevin Winston Jr. (Limited Participation in Practice); Amani Hooker (Did Not Participate In Practice); Marcus Harris (Limited Participation in Practice); Joshua Williams (Full Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

HOU: Xavier Hutchinson target share 17.2% early to 21.6% in last two weeks; Nico Collins target share 11.5% early to 15.7% in last two weeks | TEN: Carnell Tate target share 24.4% early to 33.3% in last two weeks; Wan'Dale Robinson target share 15.6% early to 25.4% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

HOU: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.02; all-play EPA -0.01; 147/250 competitive plays | TEN: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.19; all-play EPA -0.08; 102/216 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: HOU 1508, TEN 1326. HOU: offensive success 32.7%; opposing defense allows 47.9% | TEN: offensive success 35.5%; opposing defense allows 39.5%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

HOU: 2/3 offensive fumbles lost; 0 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 0.6% | TEN: 1/4 offensive fumbles lost; 2 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.4%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

HOU: rush success 26.8%, stopped at/behind line 24.4%; opposing defense rush success allowed 38.0% | TEN: rush success 37.4%, stopped at/behind line 12.7%; opposing defense rush success allowed 38.1%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

HOU: FTN motion 55.6%, play action/dropback 21.6%, RPO 2.8%; charted 250 plays | TEN: FTN motion 45.8%, play action/dropback 21.3%, RPO 6.9%; charted 216 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

HOU: fourth-down go rate 18.8%, 16 sampled opportunities | TEN: fourth-down go rate 8.8%, 11 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

HOU: neutral within-drive elapsed time 23.57s/play; 11.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -0.70 percentage points | TEN: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.48s/play; 10.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -6.55 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 66 to 68 F; wind up to 8.9 mph, gusts 17.2 mph; precipitation probability up to 9%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

HOU: kickoff at 12:00 PM on home-city clock | TEN: kickoff at 12:00 PM on home-city clock HOU travels to Nissan Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

HOU: 7 days rest, 50 offensive plays in last game. TEN: 7 days rest, 59 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

HOU: special-teams EPA/play -0.06; mean possession start 50.66 yards from opponent goal line | TEN: special-teams EPA/play -0.07; mean possession start 54.83 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Nissan Stadium; surface recorded as grass; TEN designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

IND: no matching issue in parsed report | PIT: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

IND: Daniel Jones: 132 tracked attempts, CPOE -0.96, throw time 2.73s | PIT: Aaron Rodgers: 153 tracked attempts, CPOE -2.98, throw time 2.87s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

IND: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report | PIT: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

IND: QB-hit rate allowed 16.8%; opponent hit rate generated 17.5%; Daniel Jones charted pressure 20.2% | PIT: QB-hit rate allowed 18.3%; opponent hit rate generated 15.5%; Aaron Rodgers charted pressure 24.1%; Cameron Johnston charted pressure 100.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

IND: Tyler Warren: 27 tracked targets, separation 3.95yd, YAC above expected -0.53yd; Josh Downs: 20 tracked targets, separation 2.31yd, YAC above expected 1.85yd | PIT: DK Metcalf: 33 tracked targets, separation 2.13yd, YAC above expected 0.94yd; Roman Wilson: 24 tracked targets, separation 2.63yd, YAC above expected -0.02yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

IND: Charvarius Ward (Full Participation in Practice); DeForest Buckner (Did Not Participate In Practice); Arden Key (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jaylon Carlies (Did Not Participate In Practice) | PIT: Jalen Ramsey (Limited Participation in Practice); Jamel Dean (Did Not Participate In Practice); Derrick Harmon (Injured Reserve); DeShon Elliott (Limited Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

IND: Tyler Warren target share 20.3% early to 23.4% in last two weeks; Josh Downs target share 22.0% early to 23.4% in last two weeks | PIT: DK Metcalf target share 25.7% early to 20.0% in last two weeks; Roman Wilson target share 16.2% early to 17.1% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

IND: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.24; all-play EPA -0.07; 168/251 competitive plays | PIT: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.08; all-play EPA -0.10; 142/250 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: IND 1475, PIT 1508. IND: offensive success 41.6%; opposing defense allows 50.6% | PIT: offensive success 40.4%; opposing defense allows 35.3%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

IND: 4/5 offensive fumbles lost; 4 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 4.3% | PIT: 2/3 offensive fumbles lost; 4 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 1.8%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

IND: rush success 47.0%, stopped at/behind line 16.6%; opposing defense rush success allowed 41.9% | PIT: rush success 39.1%, stopped at/behind line 16.9%; opposing defense rush success allowed 42.4%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

IND: FTN motion 60.2%, play action/dropback 30.6%, RPO 6.0%; charted 251 plays | PIT: FTN motion 49.2%, play action/dropback 20.5%, RPO 8.8%; charted 250 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

IND: fourth-down go rate 24.8%, 15 sampled opportunities | PIT: fourth-down go rate 8.3%, 15 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

IND: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.10s/play; 11.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -0.70 percentage points | PIT: neutral within-drive elapsed time 24.39s/play; 12.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 4.49 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 64 to 67 F; wind up to 15.6 mph, gusts 36.0 mph; precipitation probability up to 45%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

IND: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock | PIT: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock IND travels to Acrisure Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

IND: 7 days rest, 64 offensive plays in last game. PIT: 10 days rest, 66 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

IND: special-teams EPA/play 0.30; mean possession start 51.92 yards from opponent goal line | PIT: special-teams EPA/play 0.23; mean possession start 54.04 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Acrisure Stadium; surface recorded as grass; PIT designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

LV: no matching issue in parsed report | NE: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

LV: Kirk Cousins: 144 tracked attempts, CPOE 2.57, throw time 2.98s | NE: Drake Maye: 117 tracked attempts, CPOE 0.90, throw time 3.04s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

LV: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Trey Zuhn III (Did Not Participate In Practice) | NE: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Morgan Moses (Limited Participation in Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

LV: QB-hit rate allowed 17.5%; opponent hit rate generated 16.2%; Kirk Cousins charted pressure 24.3% | NE: QB-hit rate allowed 14.1%; opponent hit rate generated 22.1%; Drake Maye charted pressure 25.9%; Efton Chism charted pressure 100.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

LV: Brock Bowers: 25 tracked targets, separation 2.05yd, YAC above expected 0.50yd; Michael Mayer: 17 tracked targets, separation 3.60yd, YAC above expected -1.04yd | NE: Mack Hollins: 14 tracked targets, separation 2.89yd, YAC above expected 0.93yd; DeMario Douglas: 12 tracked targets, separation 3.82yd, YAC above expected 0.19yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

LV: no matching issue in parsed report | NE: Christian Elliss (Limited Participation in Practice); Carlton Davis III (Did Not Participate In Practice); Christian Gonzalez (Did Not Participate In Practice); Craig Woodson (Limited Participation in Practice); Dre'Mont Jones (Limited Participation in Practice); Christian Barmore (Full Participation in Practice); Charles Woods (Limited Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

LV: Brock Bowers target share 0.0% early to 30.8% in last two weeks; Michael Mayer target share 19.0% early to 16.7% in last two weeks | NE: Romeo Doubs target share 13.5% early to 19.7% in last two weeks; Mack Hollins target share 13.5% early to 19.7% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

LV: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.03; all-play EPA 0.00; 171/260 competitive plays | NE: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.04; all-play EPA -0.06; 148/250 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: LV 1433, NE 1571. LV: offensive success 44.4%; opposing defense allows 40.7% | NE: offensive success 45.7%; opposing defense allows 46.3%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

LV: 0/2 offensive fumbles lost; 4 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 3.4% | NE: 3/7 offensive fumbles lost; 7 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 6.0%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

LV: rush success 32.5%, stopped at/behind line 26.6%; opposing defense rush success allowed 41.2% | NE: rush success 33.1%, stopped at/behind line 21.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 38.3%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

LV: FTN motion 66.2%, play action/dropback 24.3%, RPO 1.9%; charted 260 plays | NE: FTN motion 55.2%, play action/dropback 24.2%, RPO 2.0%; charted 250 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

LV: fourth-down go rate 22.9%, 14 sampled opportunities | NE: fourth-down go rate 6.2%, 13 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

LV: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.19s/play; 12.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -0.46 percentage points | NE: neutral within-drive elapsed time 28.33s/play; 10.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 2.96 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 64 to 66 F; wind up to 10.9 mph, gusts 17.2 mph; precipitation probability up to 14%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

LV: kickoff at 10:00 AM on home-city clock | NE: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock LV travels to Gillette Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

LV: 7 days rest, 76 offensive plays in last game. NE: 7 days rest, 72 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

LV: special-teams EPA/play -0.05; mean possession start 52.81 yards from opponent goal line | NE: special-teams EPA/play 0.02; mean possession start 56.82 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Gillette Stadium; surface recorded as fieldturf; NE designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

MIN: no matching issue in parsed report | NO: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

MIN: Kyler Murray: 66 tracked attempts, CPOE 1.84, throw time 2.96s; Carson Wentz: 39 tracked attempts, CPOE -8.02, throw time 2.61s | NO: Tyler Shough: 180 tracked attempts, CPOE 3.12, throw time 2.73s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

MIN: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Brian O'Neill (Limited Participation in Practice); Christian Darrisaw (Did Not Participate In Practice); Donovan Jackson (Injured Reserve); Michael Jurgens (Full Participation in Practice) | NO: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Jeremiah Wright (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

MIN: QB-hit rate allowed 15.8%; opponent hit rate generated 13.3%; Carson Wentz charted pressure 19.1%; Kyler Murray charted pressure 26.7% | NO: QB-hit rate allowed 16.0%; opponent hit rate generated 22.9%; Tyler Shough charted pressure 21.2%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

MIN: Jordan Addison: 20 tracked targets, separation 2.83yd, YAC above expected 1.59yd; T.J. Hockenson: 18 tracked targets, separation 3.33yd, YAC above expected -0.47yd | NO: Chris Olave: 48 tracked targets, separation 2.95yd, YAC above expected -0.48yd; Devaughn Vele: 31 tracked targets, separation 2.12yd, YAC above expected -0.30yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

MIN: Harrison Smith (Limited Participation in Practice); Charles Demmings (Limited Participation in Practice) | NO: Julian Blackmon (Limited Participation in Practice); Kaden Elliss (Did Not Participate In Practice); Christen Miller (Did Not Participate In Practice); Anfernee Jennings (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jaylan Ford (Full Participation in Practice); Lorenzo Styles Jr. (Full Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

MIN: T.J. Hockenson target share 21.4% early to 29.3% in last two weeks; Jordan Addison target share 16.7% early to 25.9% in last two weeks | NO: Chris Olave target share 27.4% early to 28.7% in last two weeks; Juwan Johnson target share 13.1% early to 18.4% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

MIN: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.33; all-play EPA -0.10; 129/234 competitive plays | NO: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.33; all-play EPA -0.00; 135/291 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: MIN 1592, NO 1416. MIN: offensive success 27.0%; opposing defense allows 49.0% | NO: offensive success 36.9%; opposing defense allows 33.6%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

MIN: 0/2 offensive fumbles lost; 2 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 1.6% | NO: 5/9 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.1%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

MIN: rush success 32.2%, stopped at/behind line 17.4%; opposing defense rush success allowed 54.4% | NO: rush success 37.5%, stopped at/behind line 17.3%; opposing defense rush success allowed 29.4%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

MIN: FTN motion 56.8%, play action/dropback 27.3%, RPO 5.1%; charted 234 plays | NO: FTN motion 59.5%, play action/dropback 17.7%, RPO 3.1%; charted 291 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

MIN: fourth-down go rate 4.2%, 20 sampled opportunities | NO: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 12 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

MIN: neutral within-drive elapsed time 24.96s/play; 11.50 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -8.72 percentage points | NO: neutral within-drive elapsed time 23.27s/play; 11.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 2.29 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 81 to 87 F; wind up to 5.3 mph, gusts 10.1 mph; precipitation probability up to 0%. Roof: dome.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

MIN: kickoff at 12:00 PM on home-city clock | NO: kickoff at 12:00 PM on home-city clock MIN travels to Caesars Superdome.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

MIN: 7 days rest, 69 offensive plays in last game. NO: 6 days rest, 69 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

MIN: special-teams EPA/play 0.09; mean possession start 58.77 yards from opponent goal line | NO: special-teams EPA/play 0.03; mean possession start 50.85 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Caesars Superdome; surface recorded as sportturf; NO designated home. Roof: dome.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

NYG: no matching issue in parsed report | WAS: Marcus Mariota (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

NYG: Jameis Winston: 78 tracked attempts, CPOE -6.14, throw time 2.78s; Jaxson Dart: 29 tracked attempts, CPOE 10.93, throw time 2.64s | WAS: Athan Kaliakmanis: 33 tracked attempts, CPOE -7.37, throw time 3.04s; Marcus Mariota: 47 tracked attempts, CPOE 1.76, throw time 2.91s; Jayden Daniels: 51 tracked attempts, CPOE -2.78, throw time 3.25s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

NYG: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report | WAS: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

NYG: QB-hit rate allowed 19.6%; opponent hit rate generated 14.6%; Jameis Winston charted pressure 25.4%; Jaxson Dart charted pressure 17.6% | WAS: QB-hit rate allowed 17.4%; opponent hit rate generated 9.5%; Antonio Williams charted pressure 0.0%; Athan Kaliakmanis charted pressure 20.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

NYG: Isaiah Likely: 35 tracked targets, separation 2.73yd, YAC above expected 0.04yd; Malik Nabers: 22 tracked targets, separation 3.10yd, YAC above expected -0.67yd | WAS: Stefon Diggs: 31 tracked targets, separation 2.60yd, YAC above expected -0.26yd; Terry McLaurin: 18 tracked targets, separation 2.38yd, YAC above expected 0.74yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

NYG: Chauncey Golston (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jason Pinnock (Did Not Participate In Practice) | WAS: Nick Cross (Limited Participation in Practice); K'Lavon Chaisson (Did Not Participate In Practice); Charles Omenihu (Did Not Participate In Practice); Percy Butler (Did Not Participate In Practice); Trey Amos (Limited Participation in Practice); Tyler Owens (Did Not Participate In Practice); Deatrich Wise (Limited Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

NYG: Isaiah Likely target share 29.5% early to 34.0% in last two weeks; Malik Nabers target share 21.3% early to 26.0% in last two weeks | WAS: Stefon Diggs target share 23.8% early to 24.2% in last two weeks; Antonio Williams target share 11.1% early to 18.2% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

NYG: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.11; all-play EPA -0.06; 141/240 competitive plays | WAS: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.16; all-play EPA -0.05; 145/259 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: NYG 1446, WAS 1439. NYG: offensive success 38.7%; opposing defense allows 41.0% | WAS: offensive success 31.2%; opposing defense allows 38.7%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

NYG: 2/7 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 4.0% | WAS: 1/3 offensive fumbles lost; 1 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 1.4%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

NYG: rush success 35.0%, stopped at/behind line 11.8%; opposing defense rush success allowed 39.8% | WAS: rush success 36.9%, stopped at/behind line 19.8%; opposing defense rush success allowed 45.3%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

NYG: FTN motion 52.5%, play action/dropback 22.8%, RPO 0.8%; charted 240 plays | WAS: FTN motion 51.7%, play action/dropback 22.3%, RPO 5.8%; charted 259 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

NYG: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 10 sampled opportunities | WAS: fourth-down go rate 5.0%, 19 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

NYG: neutral within-drive elapsed time 24.97s/play; 10.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -9.69 percentage points | WAS: neutral within-drive elapsed time 23.66s/play; 11.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -1.78 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 68 to 70 F; wind up to 9.6 mph, gusts 21.7 mph; precipitation probability up to 74%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

NYG: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock | WAS: kickoff at 1:00 PM on home-city clock NYG travels to Northwest Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

NYG: 7 days rest, 63 offensive plays in last game. WAS: 7 days rest, 61 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

NYG: special-teams EPA/play 0.23; mean possession start 53.40 yards from opponent goal line | WAS: special-teams EPA/play 0.10; mean possession start 50.01 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Northwest Stadium; surface recorded as grass; WAS designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

Jameis Winston remains the starting-quarterback assumption in the current tracker. J.J. McCarthy's possible backup role was not confirmed, while Jake Haener was promoted Wednesday. Braxton Berrios went to injured reserve. Those transactions change available depth without proving a particular backup order or replacement return assignment. Jayden Daniels is confirmed to start after a full practice week following his left-elbow dislocation; he will wear a brace, without a publicly established numerical impairment. Marcus Mariota and Stefon Diggs are out. Terry McLaurin remains questionable, while safeties Percy Butler, Tyler Owens and Nick Cross are all out.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

DEN: no matching issue in parsed report | LAC: Trey Lance (Limited Participation in Practice)

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

DEN: Bo Nix: 135 tracked attempts, CPOE -5.32, throw time 2.95s | LAC: Justin Herbert: 119 tracked attempts, CPOE -3.57, throw time 2.79s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

DEN: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report | LAC: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Rashawn Slater (Did Not Participate In Practice); Joe Alt (Did Not Participate In Practice); Kayode Awosika (Did Not Participate In Practice); Trevor Penning (Did Not Participate In Practice); Branson Taylor (Full Participation in Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

DEN: QB-hit rate allowed 9.4%; opponent hit rate generated 22.8%; Bo Nix charted pressure 22.4% | LAC: QB-hit rate allowed 20.7%; opponent hit rate generated 18.5%; Justin Herbert charted pressure 29.4%; Tre Harris charted pressure 100.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

DEN: Jaylen Waddle: 23 tracked targets, separation 4.22yd, YAC above expected -0.45yd; Courtland Sutton: 18 tracked targets, separation 2.49yd, YAC above expected 1.40yd | LAC: Tre Harris: 18 tracked targets, separation 2.93yd, YAC above expected 0.22yd; Quentin Johnston: 17 tracked targets, separation 2.98yd, YAC above expected -0.65yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

DEN: Riley Moss (Did Not Participate In Practice); Pat Surtain II (Did Not Participate In Practice) | LAC: Derwin James (Did Not Participate In Practice); Donte Jackson (Did Not Participate In Practice); Rodney Shelley (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

DEN: RJ Harvey target share 7.1% early to 24.6% in last two weeks; Courtland Sutton target share 16.1% early to 18.8% in last two weeks | LAC: Tre Harris target share 17.0% early to 18.8% in last two weeks; Oronde Gadsden II target share 7.5% early to 17.2% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

DEN: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.11; all-play EPA -0.03; 120/229 competitive plays | LAC: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.06; all-play EPA -0.17; 140/245 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: DEN 1574, LAC 1460. DEN: offensive success 42.9%; opposing defense allows 43.6% | LAC: offensive success 42.0%; opposing defense allows 44.7%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

DEN: 1/5 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 4.9% | LAC: 3/8 offensive fumbles lost; 6 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 6.8%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

DEN: rush success 38.4%, stopped at/behind line 12.3%; opposing defense rush success allowed 38.7% | LAC: rush success 43.9%, stopped at/behind line 16.7%; opposing defense rush success allowed 41.4%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

DEN: FTN motion 56.8%, play action/dropback 21.4%, RPO 6.1%; charted 229 plays | LAC: FTN motion 71.8%, play action/dropback 27.6%, RPO 4.1%; charted 245 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

DEN: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 15 sampled opportunities | LAC: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 12 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

DEN: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.36s/play; 10.50 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 3.18 percentage points | LAC: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.49s/play; 11.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -10.26 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 66 to 68 F; wind up to 10.1 mph, gusts 14.1 mph; precipitation probability up to 9%. Roof: canopy; not a sealed climate-controlled dome.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

DEN: kickoff at 2:05 PM on home-city clock | LAC: kickoff at 1:05 PM on home-city clock DEN travels to SoFi Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

DEN: 7 days rest, 65 offensive plays in last game. LAC: 7 days rest, 68 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

DEN: special-teams EPA/play 0.17; mean possession start 53.06 yards from opponent goal line | LAC: special-teams EPA/play -0.07; mean possession start 56.13 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

SoFi Stadium; surface recorded as matrixturf; LAC designated home. Roof: canopy; not a sealed climate-controlled dome.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

DET: no matching issue in parsed report | ARI: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

DET: Jared Goff: 161 tracked attempts, CPOE 0.52, throw time 2.83s | ARI: Jacoby Brissett: 152 tracked attempts, CPOE 5.20, throw time 2.60s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

DET: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Ben Bartch (Did Not Participate In Practice); Cade Mays (Limited Participation in Practice) | ARI: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Paris Johnson Jr. (Injured Reserve); Isaiah Adams (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

DET: QB-hit rate allowed 15.4%; opponent hit rate generated 13.5%; Jared Goff charted pressure 19.8% | ARI: QB-hit rate allowed 15.7%; opponent hit rate generated 18.2%; Jacoby Brissett charted pressure 22.6%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

DET: Amon-Ra St. Brown: 46 tracked targets, separation 2.86yd, YAC above expected -0.45yd; Sam LaPorta: 28 tracked targets, separation 3.60yd, YAC above expected 0.04yd | ARI: Trey McBride: 46 tracked targets, separation 2.63yd, YAC above expected -0.15yd; Michael Wilson: 44 tracked targets, separation 2.77yd, YAC above expected -0.50yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

DET: Tyleik Williams (Limited Participation in Practice); Rock Ya-Sin (Did Not Participate In Practice); Thomas Harper (Injured Reserve); Brian Branch (Limited Participation in Practice) | ARI: Andrew Wingard (Did Not Participate In Practice); Walter Nolen (Limited Participation in Practice); Karson Sharar (Limited Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

DET: Amon-Ra St. Brown target share 35.1% early to 23.2% in last two weeks; Sam LaPorta target share 19.5% early to 20.7% in last two weeks | ARI: Michael Wilson target share 22.2% early to 35.3% in last two weeks; Trey McBride target share 36.5% early to 27.1% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

DET: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.04; all-play EPA 0.15; 136/265 competitive plays | ARI: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.01; all-play EPA -0.07; 152/259 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: DET 1536, ARI 1398. DET: offensive success 38.9%; opposing defense allows 45.4% | ARI: offensive success 46.3%; opposing defense allows 47.2%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

DET: 1/4 offensive fumbles lost; 0 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 1.2% | ARI: 0/0 offensive fumbles lost; 4 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.5%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

DET: rush success 43.6%, stopped at/behind line 23.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 39.1% | ARI: rush success 45.1%, stopped at/behind line 18.7%; opposing defense rush success allowed 38.8%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

DET: FTN motion 50.9%, play action/dropback 30.5%, RPO 2.3%; charted 265 plays | ARI: FTN motion 60.2%, play action/dropback 15.4%, RPO 1.2%; charted 259 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

DET: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 10 sampled opportunities | ARI: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 9 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

DET: neutral within-drive elapsed time 29.23s/play; 10.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -1.40 percentage points | ARI: neutral within-drive elapsed time 24.51s/play; 11.00 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 0.22 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 81 to 85 F; wind up to 22.3 mph, gusts 33.3 mph; precipitation probability up to 20%. Roof: retractable; game-day position not confirmed.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

DET: kickoff at 4:25 PM on home-city clock | ARI: kickoff at 1:25 PM on home-city clock DET travels to State Farm Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

DET: 7 days rest, 68 offensive plays in last game. ARI: 7 days rest, 63 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

DET: special-teams EPA/play 0.17; mean possession start 48.61 yards from opponent goal line | ARI: special-teams EPA/play 0.07; mean possession start 50.84 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

State Farm Stadium; surface recorded as grass; ARI designated home. Roof: retractable; game-day position not confirmed.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

No verified healthy-starter rest plan is documented in the linked review. Return windows and injury-related limits are tracked separately.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

SF: no matching issue in parsed report | SEA: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

SF: Brock Purdy: 113 tracked attempts, CPOE 4.23, throw time 2.96s | SEA: Sam Darnold: 67 tracked attempts, CPOE 6.47, throw time 3.31s; Drew Lock: 48 tracked attempts, CPOE 8.81, throw time 2.77s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

SF: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report | SEA: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

SF: QB-hit rate allowed 9.1%; opponent hit rate generated 21.1%; Brock Purdy charted pressure 13.4% | SEA: QB-hit rate allowed 19.2%; opponent hit rate generated 14.0%; Drew Lock charted pressure 17.8%; Jaxon Smith-Njigba charted pressure 100.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

SF: Mike Evans: 21 tracked targets, separation 1.71yd, YAC above expected -0.88yd; George Kittle: 18 tracked targets, separation 2.69yd, YAC above expected 4.76yd | SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 42 tracked targets, separation 2.55yd, YAC above expected 0.72yd; AJ Barner: 9 tracked targets, separation 2.80yd, YAC above expected 4.04yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

SF: Marques Sigle (Did Not Participate In Practice); Nick Bosa (Did Not Participate In Practice); Upton Stout (Did Not Participate In Practice); James Thompson Jr. (Did Not Participate In Practice); Mykel Williams (Full Participation in Practice) | SEA: Chazz Surratt (Did Not Participate In Practice); Julian Neal (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

SF: Mike Evans target share 18.2% early to 25.5% in last two weeks; George Kittle target share 16.4% early to 23.6% in last two weeks | SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba target share 44.0% early to 30.8% in last two weeks; AJ Barner target share 6.0% early to 18.5% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

SF: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.18; all-play EPA 0.31; 131/222 competitive plays | SEA: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.05; all-play EPA 0.02; 134/234 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: SF 1603, SEA 1645. SF: offensive success 56.9%; opposing defense allows 35.2% | SEA: offensive success 39.6%; opposing defense allows 45.7%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

SF: 0/0 offensive fumbles lost; 1 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.7% | SEA: 2/4 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.4%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

SF: rush success 44.8%, stopped at/behind line 12.8%; opposing defense rush success allowed 30.3% | SEA: rush success 35.3%, stopped at/behind line 23.4%; opposing defense rush success allowed 49.2%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

SF: FTN motion 80.2%, play action/dropback 23.8%, RPO 0.9%; charted 222 plays | SEA: FTN motion 57.3%, play action/dropback 34.6%, RPO 2.6%; charted 234 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

SF: fourth-down go rate 23.8%, 6 sampled opportunities | SEA: fourth-down go rate 12.5%, 16 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

SF: neutral within-drive elapsed time 26.70s/play; 9.50 drives/game; pass rate over expectation 2.61 percentage points | SEA: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.82s/play; 11.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -7.97 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 58 to 60 F; wind up to 9.9 mph, gusts 19.5 mph; precipitation probability up to 1%. Roof: outdoors.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

SF: kickoff at 1:25 PM on home-city clock | SEA: kickoff at 1:25 PM on home-city clock SF travels to Lumen Field.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

SF: 7 days rest, 62 offensive plays in last game. SEA: 7 days rest, 56 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

SF: special-teams EPA/play 0.28; mean possession start 56.49 yards from opponent goal line | SEA: special-teams EPA/play 0.26; mean possession start 56.62 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Lumen Field; surface recorded as fieldturf; SEA designated home. Roof: outdoors.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

San Francisco practiced its silent count throughout the week in preparation for Lumen Field's crowd noise. That is concrete communication preparation rather than a numerical noise adjustment. The report does not establish a full protection-call plan or eliminate uncertainty from the defensive replacements and pending activation decisions.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

BAL: Lamar Jackson (Did Not Participate In Practice) | ATL: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

BAL: Lamar Jackson: 96 tracked attempts, CPOE 7.14, throw time 3.11s | ATL: Michael Penix Jr.: 45 tracked attempts, CPOE 3.25, throw time 2.40s; Cooper Rush: 39 tracked attempts, CPOE -16.54, throw time 2.45s; Jack Strand: 15 tracked attempts, CPOE -18.32, throw time 2.54s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

BAL: 3/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Ronnie Stanley (Limited Participation in Practice); Andrew Vorhees (Limited Participation in Practice); Cam Jurgens (Did Not Participate In Practice) | ATL: 4/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; Jake Matthews (Full Participation in Practice)

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

BAL: QB-hit rate allowed 10.1%; opponent hit rate generated 18.3%; Lamar Jackson charted pressure 21.5%; Tyler Huntley charted pressure 0.0% | ATL: QB-hit rate allowed 10.2%; opponent hit rate generated 17.0%; Cooper Rush charted pressure 17.1%; Jack Strand charted pressure 36.8%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

BAL: Mark Andrews: 24 tracked targets, separation 3.45yd, YAC above expected -0.27yd; Zay Flowers: 22 tracked targets, separation 2.85yd, YAC above expected 3.83yd | ATL: Drake London: 26 tracked targets, separation 3.56yd, YAC above expected 2.12yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

BAL: Marlon Humphrey (Limited Participation in Practice); Trey Hendrickson (Did Not Participate In Practice); Calais Campbell (Did Not Participate In Practice) | ATL: Divine Deablo (Limited Participation in Practice); Samson Ebukam (Limited Participation in Practice); Yasir Abdullah (Did Not Participate In Practice); Za'Darius Smith (Limited Participation in Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

BAL: Zay Flowers target share 11.3% early to 32.7% in last two weeks; Mark Andrews target share 24.5% early to 22.4% in last two weeks | ATL: Drake London target share 18.0% early to 37.2% in last two weeks; Jahan Dotson target share 14.0% early to 14.0% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

BAL: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.46; all-play EPA 0.18; 127/232 competitive plays | ATL: early-down competitive EPA/play -0.16; all-play EPA -0.01; 118/243 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: BAL 1552, ATL 1487. BAL: offensive success 54.8%; opposing defense allows 35.8% | ATL: offensive success 41.5%; opposing defense allows 40.1%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

BAL: 1/1 offensive fumbles lost; 1 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 2.7% | ATL: 2/4 offensive fumbles lost; 6 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 5.6%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

BAL: rush success 47.9%, stopped at/behind line 18.8%; opposing defense rush success allowed 32.2% | ATL: rush success 51.4%, stopped at/behind line 12.5%; opposing defense rush success allowed 40.4%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

BAL: FTN motion 63.8%, play action/dropback 29.8%, RPO 5.6%; charted 232 plays | ATL: FTN motion 63.0%, play action/dropback 22.3%, RPO 2.1%; charted 243 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

BAL: fourth-down go rate 17.1%, 8 sampled opportunities | ATL: fourth-down go rate 0.0%, 15 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

BAL: neutral within-drive elapsed time 28.10s/play; 11.25 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -5.17 percentage points | ATL: neutral within-drive elapsed time 27.30s/play; 11.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -10.02 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 64 to 65 F; wind up to 10.3 mph, gusts 24.2 mph; precipitation probability up to 1%. Roof: retractable; game-day position not confirmed.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

BAL: kickoff at 8:20 PM on home-city clock | ATL: kickoff at 8:20 PM on home-city clock BAL travels to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

BAL: 7 days rest, 59 offensive plays in last game. ATL: 6 days rest, 54 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

BAL: special-teams EPA/play 0.08; mean possession start 51.77 yards from opponent goal line | ATL: special-teams EPA/play 0.00; mean possession start 54.91 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium; surface recorded as fieldturf; ATL designated home. Roof: retractable; game-day position not confirmed.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

Jesse Minter's Friday press conference rules Lamar Jackson and Trey Hendrickson out. Tyler Huntley is the confirmed starting quarterback and described the benefit of a full preparation week. This later statement supersedes earlier uncertainty about Jackson. Marlon Humphrey's return to practice and encouraging comments do not independently establish final clearance.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.

BUF: no matching issue in parsed report | LA: no matching issue in parsed report

Practice availability is a forecast condition. Public reports cannot measure actual throwing or mobility impairment; no invented medical point value.

BUF: Josh Allen: 119 tracked attempts, CPOE 2.22, throw time 2.94s | LA: Matthew Stafford: 162 tracked attempts, CPOE 1.18, throw time 2.79s

Check current starter against verified news, then compare replacement sample and preparation. CPOE is completion percentage above expectation. Small backup samples do not establish equal ability.

BUF: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report | LA: 5/5 of the highest-snap linemen retained from the previous game; no matching issue in parsed report

Shared top-five names are a continuity proxy, not proof of five players sharing every snap. Current changes gate confidence; no fixed injury deduction.

BUF: QB-hit rate allowed 15.2%; opponent hit rate generated 14.0%; Josh Allen charted pressure 21.7% | LA: QB-hit rate allowed 16.8%; opponent hit rate generated 19.2%; Matthew Stafford charted pressure 17.5%; Stetson Bennett charted pressure 25.0%

Lagged hit rates enter the fitted model. Charted pressures and NGS release times help assess matchup risk; hits are not all pressures.

BUF: Khalil Shakir: 20 tracked targets, separation 4.44yd, YAC above expected 0.00yd; DJ Moore: 18 tracked targets, separation 2.88yd, YAC above expected 1.26yd | LA: Davante Adams: 38 tracked targets, separation 2.28yd, YAC above expected 1.66yd; Puka Nacua: 21 tracked targets, separation 1.67yd, YAC above expected 3.02yd

Receiver tracking and injured defenders inform the review. Public data here do not identify every man/zone assignment, shadow corner or route matchup. Separation alone is not receiver quality.

BUF: Christian Benford (Limited Participation in Practice); Ed Oliver (Did Not Participate In Practice); Dee Alford (Did Not Participate In Practice); Landon Jackson (Limited Participation in Practice); Te'Cory Couch (Questionable) | LA: Quentin Lake (Did Not Participate In Practice); Jaylen Watson (Limited Participation in Practice); Josaiah Stewart (Did Not Participate In Practice); Aaron Donald (Limited Participation in Practice); Nate Landman (Did Not Participate In Practice); Grant Stuard (Did Not Participate In Practice)

Review injuries as position groups and possible communication changes. Overlapping reports count once; uncertain return windows do not count as active players.

BUF: DJ Moore target share 14.3% early to 21.4% in last two weeks; Khalil Shakir target share 21.4% early to 19.6% in last two weeks | LA: Davante Adams target share 28.1% early to 22.2% in last two weeks; Kyren Williams target share 8.8% early to 20.2% in last two weeks

Role changes and injury interactions can invalidate season averages. Target share is measured; no unsupported workload or snap-limit forecast.

BUF: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.08; all-play EPA 0.19; 119/235 competitive plays | LA: early-down competitive EPA/play 0.00; all-play EPA 0.02; 97/268 competitive plays

Competitive means first three quarters within eight points, using the score before each play. Lagged early-down EPA and success enter the model; late-game and defensive scores are not treated as equal offensive evidence.

Pregame Elo: BUF 1614, LA 1579. BUF: offensive success 45.9%; opposing defense allows 42.2% | LA: offensive success 43.3%; opposing defense allows 37.0%

Elo adjusts for previous opponents. Efficiency rates remain partly schedule-dependent; matchup comparisons are not fully opponent-adjusted player grades.

BUF: 4/8 offensive fumbles lost; 3 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 3.8% | LA: 2/3 offensive fumbles lost; 6 interceptions thrown; FTN interception-worthy throw rate 6.0%

Shrink recent results toward longer history. Do not award a hot-streak bonus for unsustainably favourable recoveries or defensive touchdowns.

BUF: rush success 50.7%, stopped at/behind line 11.8%; opposing defense rush success allowed 36.0% | LA: rush success 46.0%, stopped at/behind line 9.4%; opposing defense rush success allowed 45.4%

Lagged rushing success and stuff rates enter the model. Current line/front injuries remain explicit conditions rather than additive untested points.

BUF: FTN motion 66.8%, play action/dropback 29.0%, RPO 7.2%; charted 235 plays | LA: FTN motion 63.1%, play action/dropback 22.0%, RPO 0.0%; charted 268 plays

Use actual recent tendencies and verified changes. Pass tendency is fitted; FTN scheme indicators are context only. A newly announced caller can make the past four-week mix less relevant.

BUF: fourth-down go rate 33.8%, 10 sampled opportunities | LA: fourth-down go rate 17.1%, 8 sampled opportunities

Fitted coarse go tendency uses first three quarters, within eight points, between the 20-yard lines. Tiny samples are shrunk. Timeout quality and two-point optimality have not been fully charted.

BUF: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.98s/play; 10.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -1.39 percentage points | LA: neutral within-drive elapsed time 25.50s/play; 11.75 drives/game; pass rate over expectation -0.21 percentage points

Lagged pace and pass tendency enter expected totals. This elapsed-time proxy includes stopped clocks; it is not a pure seconds-per-snap tracking measurement.

Approximate stadium coordinates. Game-window outdoor forecast: 65 to 65 F; wind up to 8.4 mph, gusts 6.7 mph; precipitation probability up to 49%. Roof: canopy; not a sealed climate-controlled dome.

Weather is a total/kicking review condition, not an independently fitted adjustment. Outdoor grid wind is not on-field wind; for fixed indoor venues it does not directly describe playing conditions. Recheck forecast and roof near kickoff.

BUF: kickoff at 8:15 PM on home-city clock | LA: kickoff at 5:15 PM on home-city clock BUF travels to SoFi Stadium.

Nominal home-city clock is not the actual acclimatized body clock. Arrival date, sleep and training itinerary are unverified; no universal travel penalty added.

BUF: 8 days rest, 55 offensive plays in last game. LA: 8 days rest, 76 offensive plays in last game.

Rest is already fitted in the baseline. Current practice, snap loads and travel conditions help review recovery; an extra rest bonus would double-count it.

BUF: special-teams EPA/play 0.25; mean possession start 51.74 yards from opponent goal line | LA: special-teams EPA/play -0.12; mean possession start 57.28 yards from opponent goal line

Lagged special-teams efficiency and starting field position enter the model. Small kick/return samples are noisy, and this does not separately fit current kicker health.

SoFi Stadium; surface recorded as matrixturf; LA designated home. Roof: canopy; not a sealed climate-controlled dome.

Home/neutral status is fitted once. No extra crowd bonus or unsupported surface-injury penalty. Stadium noise level and actual footing remain unmeasured.

Sean McVay said Donald, Watson and Parkinson could be ready if their progression continued appropriately. Watson's preparation includes a shoulder harness. That is a conditional return plan, not an unconditional availability announcement or quantified limitation. Saturday's final report and any workload restrictions remain necessary evidence.

No revenge, desperation or must-win bonus. Only a confirmed plan affecting playing time can change an availability scenario.